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#207 – Sarah Eustis-Guthrie on why she shut down her charity, and why more founders should follow her lead
"I think one of the reasons I took [shutting down my charity] so hard is because entrepreneurship is all about this bets-based mindset. So you say, “I’m going to take a bunch of bets. I’m going to take some risky bets that have really high upside.” And this is a winning strategy in life, but maybe it’s not a winning strategy for any given hand. So the fact of the matter is that I believe that intellectually, but l do not believe that emotionally. And I have now met a bunch of people who are really good at doing that emotionally, and I’ve realised I’m just not one of those people. I think I’m more entrepreneurial than your average person; I don’t think I’m the maximally entrepreneurial person. And I also think it’s just human nature to not like failing." —Sarah Eustis-GuthrieIn today’s episode, host Luisa Rodriguez speaks to Sarah Eustis-Guthrie — cofounder of the now-shut-down Maternal Health Initiative, a postpartum family planning nonprofit in Ghana — about her experience starting and running MHI, and ultimately making the difficult decision to shut down when the programme wasn’t as impactful as they expected.Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.They cover:The evidence that made Sarah and her cofounder Ben think their organisation could be super impactful for women — both from a health perspective and an autonomy and wellbeing perspective.Early yellow and red flags that maybe they didn’t have the full story about the effectiveness of the intervention.All the steps Sarah and Ben took to build the organisation — and where things went wrong in retrospect.Dealing with the emotional side of putting so much time and effort into a project that ultimately failed.Why it’s so important to talk openly about things that don’t work out, and Sarah’s key lessons learned from the experience.The misaligned incentives that discourage charities from shutting down ineffective programmes.The movement of trust-based philanthropy, and Sarah’s ideas to further improve how global development charities get their funding and prioritise their beneficiaries over their operations.The pros and cons of exploring and pivoting in careers.What it’s like to participate in the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program, and how listeners can assess if they might be a good fit.And plenty more.Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Luisa’s intro (00:00:58)The interview begins (00:03:43)The case for postpartum family planning as an impactful intervention (00:05:37)Deciding where to start the charity (00:11:34)How do you even start implementing a charity programme? (00:18:33)Early yellow and red flags (00:22:56)Proof-of-concept tests and pilot programme in Ghana (00:34:10)Dealing with disappointing pilot results (00:53:34)The ups and downs of founding an organisation (01:01:09)Post-pilot research and reflection (01:05:40)Is family planning still a promising intervention? (01:22:59)Deciding to shut down MHI (01:34:10)The surprising community response to news of the shutdown (01:41:12)Mistakes and what Sarah could have done differently (01:48:54)Sharing results in the space of postpartum family planning (02:00:54)Should more charities scale back or shut down? (02:08:33)Trust-based philanthropy (02:11:15)Empowering the beneficiaries of charities’ work (02:18:04)The tough ask of getting nonprofits to act when a programme isn’t working (02:21:18)Exploring and pivoting in careers (02:27:01)Reevaluation points (02:29:55)PlayPumps were even worse than you might’ve heard (02:33:25)Charity Entrepreneurship (02:38:30)The mistake of counting yourself out too early (02:52:37)Luisa’s outro (02:57:50)Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongContent editing: Luisa Rodriguez, Katy Moore, and Keiran HarrisTranscriptions: Katy Moore
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2:58:39
Bonus: Parenting insights from Rob and 8 past guests
With kids very much on the team's mind we thought it would be fun to review some comments about parenting featured on the show over the years, then have hosts Luisa Rodriguez and Rob Wiblin react to them. Links to learn more and full transcript.After hearing 8 former guests’ insights, Luisa and Rob chat about:Which of these resonate the most with Rob, now that he’s been a dad for six months (plus an update at nine months).What have been the biggest surprises for Rob in becoming a parent.How Rob's dealt with work and parenting tradeoffs, and his advice for other would-be parents.Rob's list of recommended purchases for new or upcoming parents.This bonus episode includes excerpts from:Ezra Klein on parenting yourself as well as your children (from episode #157)Holden Karnofsky on freezing embryos and being surprised by how fun it is to have a kid (#110 and #158)Parenting expert Emily Oster on how having kids affect relationships, careers and kids, and what actually makes a difference in young kids’ lives (#178)Russ Roberts on empirical research when deciding whether to have kids (#87)Spencer Greenberg on his surveys of parents (#183)Elie Hassenfeld on how having children reframes his relationship to solving pressing global problems (#153)Bryan Caplan on homeschooling (#172)Nita Farahany on thinking about life and the world differently with kids (#174)Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Rob & Luisa’s intro (00:00:19)Ezra Klein on parenting yourself as well as your children (00:03:34)Holden Karnofsky on preparing for a kid and freezing embryos (00:07:41)Emily Oster on the impact of kids on relationships (00:09:22)Russ Roberts on empirical research when deciding whether to have kids (00:14:44)Spencer Greenberg on parent surveys (00:23:58)Elie Hassenfeld on how having children reframes his relationship to solving pressing problems (00:27:40)Emily Oster on careers and kids (00:31:44)Holden Karnofsky on the experience of having kids (00:38:44)Bryan Caplan on homeschooling (00:40:30)Emily Oster on what actually makes a difference in young kids' lives (00:46:02)Nita Farahany on thinking about life and the world differently (00:51:16)Rob’s first impressions of parenthood (00:52:59)How Rob has changed his views about parenthood (00:58:04)Can the pros and cons of parenthood be studied? (01:01:49)Do people have skewed impressions of what parenthood is like? (01:09:24)Work and parenting tradeoffs (01:15:26)Tough decisions about screen time (01:25:11)Rob’s advice to future parents (01:30:04)Coda: Rob’s updated experience at nine months (01:32:09)Emily Oster on her amazing nanny (01:35:01)Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongContent editing: Luisa Rodriguez, Katy Moore, and Keiran HarrisTranscriptions: Katy Moore
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1:35:39
#206 – Anil Seth on the predictive brain and how to study consciousness
"In that famous example of the dress, half of the people in the world saw [blue and black], half saw [white and gold]. It turns out there’s individual differences in how brains take into account ambient light. Colour is one example where it’s pretty clear that what we experience is a kind of inference: it’s the brain’s best guess about what’s going on in some way out there in the world. And that’s the claim that I’ve taken on board as a general hypothesis for consciousness: that all our perceptual experiences are inferences about something we don’t and cannot have direct access to." —Anil SethIn today’s episode, host Luisa Rodriguez speaks to Anil Seth — director of the Sussex Centre for Consciousness Science — about how much we can learn about consciousness by studying the brain.Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.They cover:What groundbreaking studies with split-brain patients and blindsight have already taught us about the nature of consciousness.Anil’s theory that our perception is a “controlled hallucination” generated by our predictive brains.Whether looking for the parts of the brain that correlate with consciousness is the right way to learn about what consciousness is.Whether our theories of human consciousness can be applied to nonhuman animals.Anil’s thoughts on whether machines could ever be conscious.Disagreements and open questions in the field of consciousness studies, and what areas Anil is most excited to explore next.And much more.Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Luisa’s intro (00:01:02)The interview begins (00:02:42)How expectations and perception affect consciousness (00:03:05)How the brain makes sense of the body it’s within (00:21:33)Psychedelics and predictive processing (00:32:06)Blindsight and visual consciousness (00:36:45)Split-brain patients (00:54:56)Overflow experiments (01:05:28)How much can we learn about consciousness from empirical research? (01:14:23)Which parts of the brain are responsible for conscious experiences? (01:27:37)Current state and disagreements in the study of consciousness (01:38:36)Digital consciousness (01:55:55)Consciousness in nonhuman animals (02:18:11)What’s next for Anil (02:30:18)Luisa’s outro (02:32:46)Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongContent editing: Luisa Rodriguez, Katy Moore, and Keiran HarrisTranscriptions: Katy Moore
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2:33:50
How much does a vote matter? (Article)
If you care about social impact, is voting important? In this piece, Rob investigates the two key things that determine the impact of your vote:The chances of your vote changing an election’s outcome.How much better some candidates are for the world as a whole, compared to others.He then discusses a couple of the best arguments against voting in important elections, namely:If an election is competitive, that means other people disagree about which option is better, and you’re at some risk of voting for the worse candidate by mistake.While voting itself doesn’t take long, knowing enough to accurately pick which candidate is better for the world actually does take substantial effort — effort that could be better allocated elsewhere.Finally, Rob covers the impact of donating to campaigns or working to "get out the vote," which can be effective ways to generate additional votes for your preferred candidate.We last released this article in October 2020, but we think it largely still stands up today.Chapters:Rob's intro (00:00:00)Introduction (00:01:12)What's coming up (00:02:35)The probability of one vote changing an election (00:03:58)How much does it matter who wins? (00:09:29)What if you’re wrong? (00:16:38)Is deciding how to vote too much effort? (00:21:47)How much does it cost to drive one extra vote? (00:25:13)Overall, is it altruistic to vote? (00:29:38)Rob's outro (00:31:19)Producer: Keiran Harris
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32:32
#205 – Sébastien Moro on the most insane things fish can do
"You have a tank split in two parts: if the fish gets in the compartment with a red circle, it will receive food, and food will be delivered in the other tank as well. If the fish takes the blue triangle, this fish will receive food, but nothing will be delivered in the other tank. So we have a prosocial choice and antisocial choice. When there is no one in the other part of the tank, the male is choosing randomly. If there is a male, a possible rival: antisocial — almost 100% of the time. Now, if there is his wife — his female, this is a prosocial choice all the time."And now a question: Is it just because this is a female or is it just for their female? Well, when they're bringing a new female, it’s the antisocial choice all the time. Now, if there is not the female of the male, it will depend on how long he's been separated from his female. At first it will be antisocial, and after a while he will start to switch to prosocial choices." —Sébastien MoroIn today’s episode, host Luisa Rodriguez speaks to science writer and video blogger Sébastien Moro about the latest research on fish consciousness, intelligence, and potential sentience.Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.They cover:The insane capabilities of fish in tests of memory, learning, and problem-solving.Examples of fish that can beat primates on cognitive tests and recognise individual human faces.Fishes’ social lives, including pair bonding, “personalities,” cooperation, and cultural transmission.Whether fish can experience emotions, and how this is even studied.The wild evolutionary innovations of fish, who adapted to thrive in diverse environments from mangroves to the deep sea.How some fish have sensory capabilities we can’t even really fathom — like “seeing” electrical fields and colours we can’t perceive.Ethical issues raised by evidence that fish may be conscious and experience suffering.And plenty more.Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongContent editing: Luisa Rodriguez, Katy Moore, and Keiran HarrisTranscriptions: Katy Moore
Unusually in-depth conversations about the world's most pressing problems and what you can do to solve them.
Subscribe by searching for '80000 Hours' wherever you get podcasts.
Produced by Keiran Harris. Hosted by Rob Wiblin and Luisa Rodriguez.
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