Prometheus Podcast

We’re back with Episode 7 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.Today, we have another fantastic guest for you-Andy Constan. Andy is the Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, a macroeconomic research firm specializing in Hedge Fund consulting. Andy brings a great deal of experience to the table, having worked at some of the biggest macroeconomic hedge funds- including Bridgewater & Brevan Howard. Andy has also generated some serious alpha this year, using his flow-based approach to time key inflections in asset markets— so this episode is must-listen if you’re trying to navigate today’s volatile markets. Find the show notes below: * Mechanics (00:00-59:00): Alpha, Discretionary vs. Systematic, Risk Premiums, Idiosyncratic Volatility, Risk vs. Volatility, Flows (Gamma, Leverage, QT), QT Mechanics, Portfolio Rebalance Channel. * Macro (59:00-1:18:00): High Nominal Growth, Higher Than Expected Inflation, Higher Than Expected Terminal Rates For Longer, What Could “Break” In Markets. * Markets (1:18:00- 1:22:00): Hedging Into FOMC & Quarterly Refunding. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @dampedspring on Twitter.If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe! Get full access to Prometheus Research at prometheusresearch.substack.com/subscribe

We’re back with Episode 6 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.Today, we have another fantastic guest for you- Eric Basmajian. Eric is the founder of EPB Macro- a macro research firm focused on economic cycle analysis. Eric has an excellent mechanistic understanding of the economy and applies a data-driven approach to forecasting the economic cycle. Anyone interested in macro forecasting will have something to learn from this episode. In the episode, Aahan & Eric take the listener on a journey deep into understanding economic cycles and what that understanding brings to light in today’s context. If you ever wanted to understand how economic cycles unfold or where we are in the current cycle— this episode is for you!Find the show notes below:* (00:00 - 55:00) Mechanics: Framework Overview, Secular Growth Drivers, Debt & Productivity, Cycle Causality, Leading Indicator Framework, Indicator Durability & Persistence, Asset Allocation Tilts & Alpha Overlay * (55:00 - 1:29:00) Macro: Current Backdrop, The Lack Of A Virtuous Cycle Turns Into Viscious Downturn, “Artificial” Production Strength, Growth Dependance On Lagging Indicators, The Fed Could Go Too Fast, Potential Policy Errors Leading To Stagflation* (1:29:00-1:35:00) Markets: Nominal Growth Priced Too High, Stocks vs. Bonds. Make sure to check our EPB Research. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @epbresearch on Twitter.If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe! Get full access to Prometheus Research at prometheusresearch.substack.com/subscribe

We’re back with Episode 5 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.Today, we have another exceptional guest for you- Bob Elliott. Bob is Co-Founder and CEO of Unlimited-  a company that uses machine learning to replicate hedge fund strategies in a low-cost ETF format. Before starting Unlimited, Bob spent over a decade at Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest and most successful macro hedge funds, and was integral to building their systematic process. Bob brings a rich mixture of economic analysis, portfolio construction, and systematic thinking to this episode, which is not to be missed! Aahan & Bob cover almost every aspect of macro in their discussion and provide a rigorous framework for thinking about the current environment. If Alpha was ever available on a podcast, it’s this one! Find the show notes below: * (00:00 - 14:30) Macro Mechanics: A Transactions Based Approach To The Economy, The Long Term Drivers, Debt Levels & Impact* (14:30 - 31:30) Inflation: Secular Drivers, Offsetting Dynamics That Caused Low Inflation, Inflation Inflection, The Nominal Economy, The Classic Inflation Cycle* (31:30 - 48:00) Assets & Portfolio Structuring: Avoiding The Recency Bias in 60/40 Portfolios, Constructing Balanced Portfolios, Alternative Premia, Alpha Decay, Alpha Generation * (48:00 - 53:00) Current Environment: Where We Are, Asset Prices Need To Decline To Tame Inflation, Stocks Rich Verus Bonds, Will The Fed Go Further Than Expected, Bonds & Stocks. * (53:00 -1:16:00 ) Alpha Positions: Shorting Stocks, Relative Value Between Stocks & Bonds, Bond Drivers, Breakevens, Commodities, Alpha Portfolio Pairing Make sure to check out Bob & Unlimited on their website; they have a very exciting product: Unlimited Funds. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @BobEUnlimited on Twitter.If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe! Get full access to Prometheus Research at prometheusresearch.substack.com/subscribe

We’re back with Episode 4 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.Today, we have the pleasure of once again hosting Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. For those of you who missed our previous conversation, we highly recommend you give it a listen for a better understanding of his sophisticated framework. While in our last conversation, we focused more on mechanics, today we’re going to spend our time discussing the current state of the economy & the outlook for markets. Aahan & Darius traverse the US macro landscape, discussing everything from the Fed & inflation to the reverse repo facility and portfolio strategy. This is a must-listen for anyone seeking to manage macro risk during one of the most economically volatile periods in history.Find the show notes below:* (00:00 - 10:40) The Fed, Inflation, & Labor Markets* (10:40 - 17:00) Equity Markets, Treasuries & Stock Bond Correlations * (17:00 - 27:00) Nominal Profits, Right Tail Risks, A Higher Inflation Target* (27:00 - 37:00) Deflation-Dispersion Playbook, Tightening Liquidity, Reverse Repo Surpises * (37:00 - 43:00) Risk Managing CPI, Manging Tail Risk, Adjusting PositioningMake sure to check out Darius’ firm, 42 Macro; they have a great product: Click here. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @42macro on Twitter.If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe! Get full access to Prometheus Research at prometheusresearch.substack.com/subscribe