Fear of unemployment jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44% in March, according to a New York Fed survey. That’s the highest it’s been since April 2020. Expect the commercial real estate market to feel that same vibe. Companies concerned about a tariff-induced recession may make cuts or stick with Zoom instead of leasing new office space, experts told us. Also: Uncertainty is driving up junk bond yields, foreign investors may be pulling back on U.S. markets, and we talk to a small-business executive in “survival mode” over tariffs.
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25:38
Expect tariff evasion
Just like some people fudge the numbers to lower their taxes, some companies do the same when paying tariffs on foreign goods. The federal government is mostly trusting that what’s in that shipping container is actually 100 bicycles, and not 500 bicycles. But erratic, rapidly changing trade policy is making it easier to evade tariffs, a customs broker told us. Also in this episode: Car insurance costs dip (but probably won’t stay down), a six-figure household income isn’t what it used to be, and the U.S. dollar takes a tumble.
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25:35
Eyeing the bond market
Stocks aren’t the only assets in the financial markets that were beat up this week by President Trump’s tariffs. Bonds suffered too. After 3-year Treasury yields rose in the face of disappointing demand, bond investors are scrutinizing Treasury auctions for signs of further weakness. Also in this episode: Trump's anti-DEI push could hurt minority contractors, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic counsels caution and a millennial in Texas dreams of becoming a homeowner.
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25:25
Acting on uncertainty
We’ve said it more than once lately: This economy is defined by uncertainty. And as President Trump makes aggressive, if erratic, moves on trade and federal funding, firms and organizations are taking action to protect their interests. In this episode, some universities issue bonds ahead of federal funding cuts and some companies retract their investor guidance for 2025. Plus: Tariffs can’t reshore every sector of manufacturing and we launch a series documenting the consumer economy, focused on the views and experiences of people.
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25:53
A cold snap in corporate bonds
The issuance of corporate bonds has slowed to a crawl, thanks to all that uncertainty in the economy. And without raising money in the bond market, firms may pull back on long-term investments. Also in this episode: The Democratic Republic of the Congo extends its ban on cobalt exports to raise prices, strains in the bar and restaurant business lead to closures and we answer listener questions on trade policy.
Every weekday, host Kai Ryssdal helps you make sense of the day's business and economic news — no econ degree or finance background required. "Marketplace" takes you beyond the numbers, bringing you context. Our team of reporters all over the world speak with CEOs, policymakers and regular people just trying to get by.
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