Wiser Than Yesterday: Book club

Making good predictions is tough. We think we know more than we do and let emotions and biases creep in. How do some forecasters beat the odds? Our hosts, Nico and Sam, chat about the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver exploring why predictions fail and uncovering practical insights.A little statistical training can go a long way! We geek out on Bayes' Theorem, discuss why poker develops useful reasoning skills, and tackle investing decisions using probabilities. Improving predictions requires tracking your results and having the courage to map what you don't know.We dissect Signal versus noise in forecasting explained and Understanding data prediction with Nate Silver, offering an analytical perspective on how to distinguish meaningful patterns from mere noise.If you want to enhance your critical thinking abilities and decision-making under uncertainty, tune in! We promise no boring academic lectures - just practical tips served with our signature blend of intellectual curiosity and humor.- - -Contact the hostsWiser pod websiteNico's projectsBeing a VC - Bitkraft.vcFuture of Gaming podcast - Website - YouTubeSam's projectsWriting - Explosive thinkingPodcast - Growth mindset podcast- - -Chapters00:00 The Signal and The Noise02:25 Moneyball - Importance of prediction05:50 Poker as a Prediction Game07:44 Base Theorem11:57 Using poker to illustrate Bayes' theorem15:53 Frequent feedback improves forecast skill21:14 Overfitting - The problem of limited data and latching onto false patterns23:23 Europe's healthcare system vs. USA27:31 Improving prediction framework and minimising mistakes29:15 Nico's company33:10 Ratings & Reflection35:16 Send offTopicsNate Silver prediction analysis book reviewPractical insights from The Signal and the NoiseWhy predictions fail book summary podcastSignal versus noise in forecasting explainedUnderstanding data prediction with Nate SilverBook podcast on successful forecasting methodsThe Signal and the Noise summary insightsLearning predictive accuracy from Nate SilverExploring statistical forecasts in modern timesBook review on data-driven predictions podcastAnalyzing The Signal and the Noise themesNate Silver’s approach to accurate predictionsPractical lessons from prediction failures and successesBook summary podcast on statistical significanceWhy some predictions succeed: Nate Silver's insights Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene are described as amoral, cunning, ruthless, and instructive. This multi-million-copy New York Times bestselling book brands itself as the definitive manual for anyone interested in gaining, observing, or defending against ultimate control.50 Cent loved the book so much that he reached out to the author to work with him.But what can we learn from this book about power, society, and morality and what are its limits?Hosts Sam Webster Harris and Nicolas Vereecke provide a summary of the 48 laws of power, and discuss the book that launched Robert Greene's career.- - -Contact the hostsWiser pod websiteNico's projectsBeing a VC - Bitkraft.vcFuture of Gaming podcast - Website - YouTubeSam's projectsWriting - Explosive thinkingPodcast - Growth mindset podcast- - -Chapters00:00 Overview of the 48 laws of power03:04 Favorite laws of power03:12 Law 4 - Say less than necessary07:24 How the book is structured10:43 Law 5 - So much depends on reputation. Guard it with your life11:47 Law 47 - Don't go past the mark. You aim for in victory, learn when to stop13:30 Law 46 - Never appear too perfect15:39 Laws that didn't stick well23:19 Law 26 - Keep your hands clean 23:37 Law 27 - create a cult-like following24:40 Law 32 Play into people's fantasies25:23 Have the top 10 influential people used these laws?29:21 Law 33 - Discover each man's thumbscrew30:17 Law 39 - Stir up waters to catch fish31:25 Law 10 - Infection: Avoid the unhappy or the unlucky33:52 General take on the book and rating34:30 Sam - rating 6/1035:43 Nico - rating 4/1036:36 Correlation between power and happinessTopicsPower and manipulationTrust and respectCreating a cultAttacking weaknessLaws of historyHappiness and controlGuarding reputationThe real source of true powerNever be greedyAvoid perfectionThe problems with the 48 laws of powerCommon book mistakes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well.He discusses how nations that control the world have seized and lost their global power in predictable cycles. He explores where we are at today with the United States as a world power and where we are going next.A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.- - -Contact the hostsWiser pod websiteNico's projectsBeing a VC - Bitkraft.vcFuture of Gaming podcast - Website - YouTubeSam's projectsYoutube - World records and adventuresWriting - Explosive thinkingPodcast - Growth mindset podcast- - -Chapters00:00 Intro00:43 Brief summary of the book17:31 3 key forces that influence the world17:56 #1 Debt cycles31:26 #2 Wealth and power disparities23:40 #3 Rise and Fall of Empires27:14 Is the US losing power30:59 Bitcoin31:35 What Ray Dalio thinks about bitcoin33:15 How would the knowledge in this book change your life36:27 Hosts ratings38:06 Would you trust Ray Dalio with your money? 38:36 Next book - 48 laws of power39:08 Outro Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Review of the Three-Body Problem by Cixin Liu, one of the most impactful hard-science fiction books this century. Set against the backdrop of China's Cultural Revolution, a secret military project sends signals into space to establish contact with aliens. An alien civilization on the brink of destruction captures the signal and plans to invade Earth. Meanwhile, on Earth, different camps start forming, planning to either welcome the superior beings and help them take over a world seen as corrupt, or to fight against the invasion.We discuss the book and its philosophical ideas as well as some of the more exciting science ideas within. It's a heavy book to wrap your head around but full of insights for the keen explorer.- - -Contact the hostsWiser pod websiteNico's projectsBeing a VC - Bitkraft.vcFuture of Gaming podcast - Website - YouTubeSam's projectsYoutube - World records and adventuresWriting - Explosive thinkingPodcast - Growth mindset podcast- - -Chapters00:00 Intro01:00 Quick summary of the book01:24 Personal reactions to the book 09:07 Sending a message out to aliens18:16 How do you determine if a civilisation is important20:50 Hard times make hard people24:10 Three body problem review27:00 Ratings Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.