UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US data on income and spending confirms that the US consumer has money and is prepared to spend it. There was not, perhaps, much doubt of the latter point. US living standards continuously reach new highs (at least as measured in economic terms). The personal consumer expenditure deflator offered no surprises with regard to inflation—though it did show that inflation was more driven by supply problems than demand (according to Federal Reserve analysis).

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes signalled a gradual series of rate reductions next year (a quarter point each quarter seems reasonable). A December rate cut is also plausible, bringing interest rate reductions in line with the decline in the inflation rate.

As 2025 quickly approaches, Rich rejoins Jason for a year-ahead discussion, spanning the macroeconomic environment, to markets, to the landscape across Washington DC. We also spend time reviewing investment themes in-focus, along with allocation preferences across asset classes. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Host: Daniel Cassidy

Government by social media—US President-elect Trump pledged to hit US consumers with aggressive consumption tax hikes immediately on taking office. A 25% tax for consumers of Mexican and Canadian goods and an additional 10% tax on consumers of goods from China is proposed.