The CSIS Americas Program podcast looks at the politics and policies of the 35 countries in the Western Hemisphere. It especially focuses on U.S. engagement wit...
This episode of 35 West originally aired on May 16, 2024. Following recent announcements that the incoming Trump Administration would consider tariffs on Mexico and Canada unless the two countries act to stop the flow of illegal drugs and irregular migration, many of the topics discussed have only grown in relevance.
In 2023, U.S. trade with Mexico grew to nearly $800 billion, leading Mexico to surpass both Canada and China as the United States’ number one trading partner. While U.S.-Mexico trade has long been a pillar of North American economic competitiveness, Washington’s efforts to move trade away from China in favor of nearshoring and friendshoring in the Western Hemisphere, coupled with the advantages of a modernized trade agreement in the form of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has underpinned this increase in bilateral trade and investment. At the same time, Chinese investment in Mexico has skyrocketed, with estimates finding that in 2022 Chinese foreign direct investment in Mexico was more than double that of 2018.
In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Kenneth Smith Ramos, Chief Trade Negotiator for Mexico from 2017 to 2018 and one of the architects of USMCA. Together, they discuss the evolution of USMCA since its entry into force in 2020, with a focus on the recent surge of Chinese investment in Mexico, understanding the nature of this investment, as well as the potential challenges it may present. They also discuss the upcoming 2026 Joint Review of the agreement, and what can be done by all three countries to lay the groundwork for a more constructive session.
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37:48
Mineral Security is National Security
Bound together by tight trade links, cultural ties, as well as mutual defense partnerships like NATO and NORAD, the U.S.-Canada relationship has deep roots. However, the relationship is not without its challenges, especially as Canada appears to drag its feet on U.S. requests that it scale up defense spending to meet rising global security challenges. One area where the United States and Canada could nevertheless find fertile ground for greater cooperation however is on securing mineral supply chains.
In this episode, Henry Ziemer sits down with Abigail Hunter, Executive Director of the Center for Critical Mineral Strategy at SAFE. Together, they discuss the state of U.S.-Canada cooperation on critical minerals projects, lingering obstacles, and the kinds of incentives needed to galvanize greater supply chain security. They also discuss how the two countries can work together to effectively push back against China's domination of mineral refining and processing infrastructure.
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21:48
Uruguay's Upstanding Elections
On Sunday, October 27, Uruguay held the first round of its presidential elections. While the smoothness of Uruguay’s election may come as a breath of fresh air in a region where orderly political transitions can at times be luxuries, the outcome of the presidential race will have important domestic and foreign policy implications for Uruguay.
In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Mauro Casa, a Uruguayan political analyst. Together, they discuss the key issues in the election, and what can be expected as the country heads to a runoff in November. They also delve into U.S.-Uruguay dynamics, and how Washington and Montevideo can maintain a productive relationship with Washington irrespective of who wins the presidency in either country.
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30:47
Impediment to Change or Last Resort? The ICC Case Against the Maduro Regime
Since the blatant electoral fraud that took place on July 28, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has sought to repress its way out of mass protests demanding political change. The regime’s heavy-handed crackdown comes at a time when the International Criminal Court has already been investigating Venezuela for alleged crimes against humanity. As the regime seeks to silence dissent and close the civic space, this pending case may represent one of the few remaining levers the international community can apply to instill restraint, but only if such an approach is carefully considered.
In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Santiago Canton, Secretary General of the International Commission of Jurists and a member of the Panel of Independent International Experts on the Possible Commission of Crimes against Humanity in Venezuela of the Organization of American States. Together, they discuss the state of the ICC's investigation and how it is likely to develop in light of the abuses the regime has committed in the past three months. They also delve into the debate around whether the ICC case represents an impediment to political change, or if it remains a useful means of applying pressure on the regime.
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28:57
The International Response to Maduro's Election Fraud
International diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro will be decisive in determining whether his ongoing attempts to steal the results of Venezuela's July 28 election will prevail, or if there is potential for change ahead of the official inauguration in January 2025. While the United States has condemned the results in Venezuela, regional heavyweights like Brazil have taken a different approach, refusing to officially recognize Maduro as the victor, but simultaneously avoiding harsh criticism of the regime’s actions.
In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Thiago de Aragão, a senior associate with CSIS and CEO of Arko Advice, a political risk analysis firm based in Brazil. Together, they discuss the international community's response to developments in Venezuela, with a specific focus on Brazil's approach. They also unpack the international implications of Maduro's electoral fraud for the Western Hemisphere as a whole, and Venezuela's efforts to join the BRICS grouping.
The CSIS Americas Program podcast looks at the politics and policies of the 35 countries in the Western Hemisphere. It especially focuses on U.S. engagement with the region, whether on trade, diplomacy, or security issues like drugs and terrorism. Guests include top policymakers from the U.S. and other countries.
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