Multipolarity

The US State Department advised its citizens in Northern Mexico to ‘shelter in place’, as the cartels took their reprisals, following a major Mexican security forces operation against gang kingpin El Mencho - and then another called El Tuli.
It’s all LOL, until you realise that this is just the start. By targeting the cartels, the US has poked a hornet’s nest; And the hornets are on cocaine.
Meanwhile - have you paid a US steel tariff in recent months? Was it over 30%? If so, you could be due a refund. Just dial 1-800-WHITE HOUSE to see if you may be eligible.
The Supreme Court acknowledged that sorting out the tariffs strike-down would be ‘a complete mess’.
But after the mess, the reckoning: deep down, this is a story about the US balance of payments.
Finally, Christine Lagarde is stepping down from the ECB. Emmanuel Macron' s Napoleonic pincer movement is that this frees the way for a Lagarde Presidential Run – and stops a National Rally government from appointing its own bank governor in 2028. But with these kinds of cynical machinations now effectively running the European elite, the entire Centrist establishment may be embarking on its Russia Campaign.
All of this. Coming up. For premium subscribers. That’s right - it’s premium week.
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At the Munich Security Conference, Marco Rubio offered Europe a peace in our time.
The Americans sprayed on the charm. But looking between the fine words, it seems like Marco was on his way out the door.
Do Europe’s friends need to tell her this is a break up speech?
Meanwhile, rumours of the destruction of Iran remain premature.
We’ve run the numbers, and it turns out it would take ten per cent of all the Tomahawks in the world to flatten three mullahs and an oil derrick.
But with American strike fleets still camped in the Persian Gulf, how does this end?

Finally, Hungary was all anyone was talking about backstage at Munich.
The Brussels establishment have decided that defeating Orban in his upcoming fourth successive election will bring a massive W in a world drowning in Ls.
The polls haven’t just tightened - they’ve actually split.
With two sides both predicting victory for their candidate, across a spread of 15 points, what happens when one side wakes up in April to find themselves robbed?

Firas Modad is back for his second turn on the pod.
After talking about Neo-Ottomanism last time, he is turning his attention to Iran, and its faltering regime.
With rumours of an imminent attack continuing to swirl, what future is there for a post-Khamenei world?
What part could be played by the exiled Shah? Is there perhaps a different faction that could take the reins if the mullahs fell?
Even then: do Iran’s neighbours even want the regime to fall - given that it could unleash an oil rich industrialised state of 80 million into the region’s balance of power?
Then, talk turns to Somaliland. Recently recognised by Israel, this northern splinter state of Somalia is relatively stable, and hangs on a hinge of the Gulf of Aden, making it a juicy prize for lovers of international shipping lanes. The Emiratis are for it – but Turkey says no.
Who will win in this coming tussle between the Gulf monarchies and the neo-sultan Erdogan?

Today we bring you two audio essays from your favourite geo-political podcasters.
First up Philip is looking at the recent attempt to short the precious metals market.
Perhaps the push to lower the interest rate is not to juice the economy but rather an attempt ultimately stop the Sell America trade?
Meanwhile Andrew’s shouting from the rooftops "it’s right there in the document!".
The Donroe Doctrine… Trump wants to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and the evidence has been there the whole time.
Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

After Greenland, the rupture in the Transatlantic Alliance was made visible at the WEF conference in Davos.
Mark Carney said the quiet bit aloud. But the real implications are beginning to be felt in the deep financial plumbing that undergirds the global economy.
Now, a Japanese bond market sell-off is unsettling larger forces. If Japanese interest rate then rocket, they may need to liquify their massive US Treasury bond holdings. Beyond the geopolitics, this is going to turn nasty – economic levels of nasty.
We’ll be exploring the full low road prospectus in this bumper-length members-only show.
This is our monthly paywalled episode.
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